股票市场结构可视化#
此示例采用多种无监督学习技术，从历史报价的变化中提取股票市场结构。
我们使用的数量是报价的每日变化：相关的报价往往在一天内相互波动。
# Author: Gael Varoquaux [email protected]
# License: BSD 3 clause
从互联网检索数据#
数据来自 2003 年至 2008 年。这段时间相对平静：（时间不太久远，因此我们获得了高科技公司，并且是在 2008 年金融危机之前）。此类历史数据可以从 data.nasdaq.com 和 alphavantage.co 等 API 获取。
import sys
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
symbol_dict = {
"TOT": "Total",
"XOM": "Exxon",
"CVX": "Chevron",
"COP": "ConocoPhillips",
"VLO": "Valero Energy",
"MSFT": "Microsoft",
"IBM": "IBM",
"TWX": "Time Warner",
"CMCSA": "Comcast",
"CVC": "Cablevision",
"YHOO": "Yahoo",
"DELL": "Dell",
"HPQ": "HP",
"AMZN": "Amazon",
"TM": "Toyota",
"CAJ": "Canon",
"SNE": "Sony",
"F": "Ford",
"HMC": "Honda",
"NAV": "Navistar",
"NOC": "Northrop Grumman",
"BA": "Boeing",
"KO": "Coca Cola",
"MMM": "3M",
"MCD": "McDonald's",
"PEP": "Pepsi",
"K": "Kellogg",
"UN": "Unilever",
"MAR": "Marriott",
"PG": "Procter Gamble",
"CL": "Colgate-Palmolive",
"GE": "General Electrics",
"WFC": "Wells Fargo",
"JPM": "JPMorgan Chase",
"AIG": "AIG",
"AXP": "American express",
"BAC": "Bank of America",
"GS": "Goldman Sachs",
"AAPL": "Apple",
"SAP": "SAP",
"CSCO": "Cisco",
"TXN": "Texas Instruments",
"XRX": "Xerox",
"WMT": "Wal-Mart",
"HD": "Home Depot",
"GSK": "GlaxoSmithKline",
"PFE": "Pfizer",
"SNY": "Sanofi-Aventis",
"NVS": "Novartis",
"KMB": "Kimberly-Clark",
"R": "Ryder",
"GD": "General Dynamics",
"RTN": "Raytheon",
"CVS": "CVS",
"CAT": "Caterpillar",
"DD": "DuPont de Nemours",
}
symbols, names = np.array(sorted(symbol_dict.items())).T
quotes = []
for symbol in symbols:
print("Fetching quote history for %r" % symbol, file=sys.stderr)
url = (
"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/scikit-learn/examples-data/"
"master/financial-data/{}.csv"
)
quotes.append(pd.read_csv(url.format(symbol)))
close_prices = np.vstack([q["close"] for q in quotes])
open_prices = np.vstack([q["open"] for q in quotes])
# The daily variations of the quotes are what carry the most information
variation = close_prices - open_prices
Fetching quote history for 'AAPL'
Fetching quote history for 'AIG'
Fetching quote history for 'AMZN'
Fetching quote history for 'AXP'
Fetching quote history for 'BA'
Fetching quote history for 'BAC'
Fetching quote history for 'CAJ'
Fetching quote history for 'CAT'
Fetching quote history for 'CL'
Fetching quote history for 'CMCSA'
Fetching quote history for 'COP'
Fetching quote history for 'CSCO'
Fetching quote history for 'CVC'
Fetching quote history for 'CVS'
Fetching quote history for 'CVX'
Fetching quote history for 'DD'
Fetching quote history for 'DELL'
Fetching quote history for 'F'
Fetching quote history for 'GD'
Fetching quote history for 'GE'
Fetching quote history for 'GS'
Fetching quote history for 'GSK'
Fetching quote history for 'HD'
Fetching quote history for 'HMC'
Fetching quote history for 'HPQ'
Fetching quote history for 'IBM'
Fetching quote history for 'JPM'
Fetching quote history for 'K'
Fetching quote history for 'KMB'
Fetching quote history for 'KO'
Fetching quote history for 'MAR'
Fetching quote history for 'MCD'
Fetching quote history for 'MMM'
Fetching quote history for 'MSFT'
Fetching quote history for 'NAV'
Fetching quote history for 'NOC'
Fetching quote history for 'NVS'
Fetching quote history for 'PEP'
Fetching quote history for 'PFE'
Fetching quote history for 'PG'
Fetching quote history for 'R'
Fetching quote history for 'RTN'
Fetching quote history for 'SAP'
Fetching quote history for 'SNE'
Fetching quote history for 'SNY'
Fetching quote history for 'TM'
Fetching quote history for 'TOT'
Fetching quote history for 'TWX'
Fetching quote history for 'TXN'
Fetching quote history for 'UN'
Fetching quote history for 'VLO'
Fetching quote history for 'WFC'
Fetching quote history for 'WMT'
Fetching quote history for 'XOM'
Fetching quote history for 'XRX'
Fetching quote history for 'YHOO'
学习图结构#
我们使用稀疏逆协方差估计来找出哪些报价在其他报价的条件下是相关的。具体来说，稀疏逆协方差为我们提供了一个图，即连接列表。对于每个符号，与其连接的符号是那些有助于解释其波动的符号。
from sklearn import covariance
alphas = np.logspace(-1.5, 1, num=10)
edge_model = covariance.GraphicalLassoCV(alphas=alphas)
# standardize the time series: using correlations rather than covariance
# former is more efficient for structure recovery
X = variation.copy().T
X /= X.std(axis=0)
edge_model.fit(X)
使用亲和传播进行聚类#
我们使用聚类将行为相似的报价分组在一起。在这里，在 scikit-learn 中提供的各种聚类技术 中，我们使用亲和传播，因为它不强制要求集群大小相等，并且可以从数据中自动选择集群数量。
请注意，这为我们提供了与图不同的指示，因为图反映了变量之间的条件关系，而聚类反映了边际属性：聚类在一起的变量可以被认为在整个股票市场层面上具有相似的影响。
from sklearn import cluster
_, labels = cluster.affinity_propagation(edge_model.covariance_, random_state=0)
n_labels = labels.max()
for i in range(n_labels + 1):
print(f"Cluster {i + 1}: {', '.join(names[labels == i])}")
Cluster 1: Apple, Amazon, Yahoo
Cluster 2: Comcast, Cablevision, Time Warner
Cluster 3: ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Total, Valero Energy, Exxon
Cluster 4: Cisco, Dell, HP, IBM, Microsoft, SAP, Texas Instruments
Cluster 5: Boeing, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon
Cluster 6: AIG, American express, Bank of America, Caterpillar, CVS, DuPont de Nemours, Ford, General Electrics, Goldman Sachs, Home Depot, JPMorgan Chase, Marriott, McDonald's, 3M, Ryder, Wells Fargo, Wal-Mart
Cluster 7: GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, Pfizer, Sanofi-Aventis, Unilever
Cluster 8: Kellogg, Coca Cola, Pepsi
Cluster 9: Colgate-Palmolive, Kimberly-Clark, Procter Gamble
Cluster 10: Canon, Honda, Navistar, Sony, Toyota, Xerox
嵌入到二维空间中#
出于可视化目的，我们需要在二维画布上布置不同的符号。为此，我们使用流形学习技术来检索二维嵌入。我们使用密集特征求解器来实现可重复性（arpack 是用我们无法控制的随机向量初始化的）。此外，我们使用大量的邻居来捕捉大规模结构。
# Finding a low-dimension embedding for visualization: find the best position of
# the nodes (the stocks) on a 2D plane
from sklearn import manifold
node_position_model = manifold.LocallyLinearEmbedding(
n_components=2, eigen_solver="dense", n_neighbors=6
)
embedding = node_position_model.fit_transform(X.T).T
可视化#
3 个模型的输出组合在一个二维图中，其中节点表示股票，边表示
聚类标签用于定义节点的颜色
稀疏协方差模型用于显示边的强度
二维嵌入用于在平面中定位节点
此示例包含大量的可视化相关代码，因为可视化对于显示图形至关重要。其中一项挑战是定位标签以最大程度地减少重叠。为此，我们使用了一种基于沿每个轴的最近邻居方向的启发式方法。
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from matplotlib.collections import LineCollection
plt.figure(1, facecolor="w", figsize=(10, 8))
plt.clf()
ax = plt.axes([0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0])
plt.axis("off")
# Plot the graph of partial correlations
partial_correlations = edge_model.precision_.copy()
d = 1 / np.sqrt(np.diag(partial_correlations))
partial_correlations *= d
partial_correlations *= d[:, np.newaxis]
non_zero = np.abs(np.triu(partial_correlations, k=1)) > 0.02
# Plot the nodes using the coordinates of our embedding
plt.scatter(
embedding[0], embedding[1], s=100 * d**2, c=labels, cmap=plt.cm.nipy_spectral
)
# Plot the edges
start_idx, end_idx = np.where(non_zero)
# a sequence of (*line0*, *line1*, *line2*), where::
# linen = (x0, y0), (x1, y1), ... (xm, ym)
segments = [
[embedding[:, start], embedding[:, stop]] for start, stop in zip(start_idx, end_idx)
]
values = np.abs(partial_correlations[non_zero])
lc = LineCollection(
segments, zorder=0, cmap=plt.cm.hot_r, norm=plt.Normalize(0, 0.7 * values.max())
)
lc.set_array(values)
lc.set_linewidths(15 * values)
ax.add_collection(lc)
# Add a label to each node. The challenge here is that we want to
# position the labels to avoid overlap with other labels
for index, (name, label, (x, y)) in enumerate(zip(names, labels, embedding.T)):
dx = x - embedding[0]
dx[index] = 1
dy = y - embedding[1]
dy[index] = 1
this_dx = dx[np.argmin(np.abs(dy))]
this_dy = dy[np.argmin(np.abs(dx))]
if this_dx > 0:
horizontalalignment = "left"
x = x + 0.002
else:
horizontalalignment = "right"
x = x - 0.002
if this_dy > 0:
verticalalignment = "bottom"
y = y + 0.002
else:
verticalalignment = "top"
y = y - 0.002
plt.text(
x,
y,
name,
size=10,
horizontalalignment=horizontalalignment,
verticalalignment=verticalalignment,
bbox=dict(
facecolor="w",
edgecolor=plt.cm.nipy_spectral(label / float(n_labels)),
alpha=0.6,
),
)
plt.xlim(
embedding[0].min() - 0.15 * np.ptp(embedding[0]),
embedding[0].max() + 0.10 * np.ptp(embedding[0]),
)
plt.ylim(
embedding[1].min() - 0.03 * np.ptp(embedding[1]),
embedding[1].max() + 0.03 * np.ptp(embedding[1]),
)
plt.show()
脚本总运行时间：（0 分钟 2.841 秒）
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